Estimation of Growth Rate, Decomposition Analysis and Export Instability of Fruits in Afghanistan

Abstract

The horticulture sector has important contribution in agricultural GDP and Afghanistan’s economic growth.  In 2024 total area under horticultural crops was 4.28 lakh hectares. Area under fruits was 3.38 lakh hectares which was accounted for 78.97 per cent of total horticultural area. This study aims to quantify the growth, decomposition and instability in area, production, yield and export of fruits in Afghanistan. Secondary data was collected from FAO statistics and ITC for a period of 24 years from 2001 to 2024. Compound Annual Growth Rate was computed for studying the trend in area, production, yield, export quantity and export value for fruits. Decomposition analysis is used to examine the effect of area and yield on production. The results of CAGR showed positive, high and significant growth in area, production, yield and export of fruits from Afghanistan. Effect of area during sub-period 1, was 55.74 per cent for the production variability, and in the second period, it gets reduced to 46.30 per cent of production. In case of productivity sub-period 1, was most responsible also, i.e., 14.54 per cent variability in production of fruits. The interaction effect of both area and productivity on production was 8.07 per cent during sub-period1, and 5.78 per cent during sub-period 2. The effect of area and productivity as well as interaction of both was positive and it was high in sub-period 1 than sub-period 2. Export of fruits to India and Russia were most stable as co-efficient of variation of 46.06 and 45.15 per cent and instability index of 30.23 and 32.11 per cent respectively. Pakistan was medium stable with co-efficient of variation of 62.23 per cent and instability index of 48.48 per cent.